Threat Assessments on California Rangelands

This tool was developed around six scenarios related to the question: “How can we maintain viable ranchlands and their ecosystem services in light of future integrated threats?” The scenarios represent alternative futures of climate/land use/hydrological change for the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition focus area (the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast Range).

The website provides a visualization tool to view changes in ecosystem services—such as wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration—across scenarios and years. The tool includes the following maps:

• Change in percentage of watershed area with critical habitat relative to 2010.
• Percent change in grassland soil carbon sequestration potential.
• Percent change in climatic water deficit relative to the 1981–2010 climate period.
• Ratio of recharge to runoff for three 30-year climate periods.
• Water-Wildlife Hotspots: areas where changes in water availability (recharge plus runoff) and loss of critical habitat coincide.
• Average percent change in multiple ecosystem services from 2010 to 2040.

Target audiences of this assessment include ranchers, land managers, conservation organizations, planners, and decision makers. The project will: (1) help local planners minimize impacts to rangeland ecosystem services; (2) help federal and state agencies design effective conservation plans that incorporate climate change and land use change impacts; (3) help water agencies assess potential changes to water supply; (4) help conservation organizations prioritize their actions; and (5) help watershed groups in their planning efforts. Overall, the project highlights and quantifies the value of privately-owned rangelands in the Central Valley as providers of ecosystem services and evaluates the costs and benefits of conserving them.